Continuation of the previous analysis:
Stopping when hitting the bottom is not a bad thing. The worst scenario is continuously pushing, resulting in a heavier fall without a bottom line. Short-term consolidation or a small decline may provide an opportunity for rotation and increased momentum. However, it still depends on the short-term trend.
Especially with the election at the end of the year, an endless upward trend is not realistic. Therefore, some volatility in the short term is necessary for a healthy market.
Possible scenarios before the election: ABC
Starting with the simplest, MODEL C. If, inadvertently, even the Last Line of Defense is breached, it’s almost time to meet C, especially when even the orange line cannot be held. Of course, there are still some defensive lines in between, but the chances of holding them are slim.
This is the worst-case estimate and currently the least likely scenario. However, it’s important to take precautions against expecting a rebound and stubbornly holding on, leading to unnecessary losses.
Model A/B:
The pullback point is the first respective box, then moving upward to touch the upper side, and then downward to touch the lower side. This needs time for verification. These are the operational paths I am preparing for before the election, with Model B being the scenario I consider more likely to occur.
In the short term, I won’t enter the market. I cleared most of my positions last week. Unless next week consolidates with a certain volume release, I will at least wait until touching A before taking action. Additionally, it depends on whether DXY can continue to move downward.
延续上篇的解析
碰到底就停 不算坏事
最怕的是一直冲 反而跌的更重及没有底线
短期盘整或小跌反而可能换手 增加动能
但是还是要看短线的走势
尤其是大选在年底
要无止境的上攻是不现实的
所以短线上还是需要一定的波动才健康
选前可能走势
ABC三种
先从简单的来说 MODEL C
如果不小心连 Last Line of Defense
都破 那差不多要去见C
尤其是连橘线都守不住的时候
当然中间还是有些防线
但是能守住的机会不大
这是最差的预估 也是目前比较不可能会发生的事情
但是要先打个预防针
怕有预期反弹 而死抱不放 造成不必要的损失
Model A/B
回调点就是第一个各自方框
然後在向上去摸上方
再接下去摸下方
有待时间验证
不过这些就是我未来到大选前预备的操作路径
而ModelB会是我预期比较可能会发生的情况
短线内 我暂时不会入场
我在上礼拜已经出清了绝大部分仓位
除非下礼拜能盘整且有一定的量能释出
不然最起码我会等到触碰到A才会有所动作
另外就是要看DXY是否能继续向下
DXY:
The previous Route 1 is clearly not viable; there’s a chance of Route 2. Currently, it seems like a short-term rebound, but there is pressure from the previous low, and these days it has shown weakness. Therefore, it seems likely to move towards 99, and it might even reach the previously estimated 97. If DXY continues to move downward next week, it can generally be inferred that there is a higher chance of the stock market continuing to rise.
DXY
之前的Route 1 明显不是
看来有机会走Route 2
目前看短期回弹
不过看起来前低有压力 且这几天呈现弱势
所以看来还是会迈向99
甚至有可能会去到之前预估的97
如果下礼拜DXY果真继续向下
那大致上可以判断股市能续涨的机会比较大
